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The Coming Debt Crisis

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The financial crisis never really went away.

The debt mountain that brought down some of the world’s biggest banks and dragged the international financial system to the brink of disaster has simply shifted to governments. Now, it’s threatening countries around the globe and if left unchecked could rip the very fabric of Europe’s economic system and wreck economic recoveries in the U.S., China and Latin America.

The impact on markets has been severe. The euro has slumped more than 12% against the dollar since the sovereign debt crisis flared in southern Europe. Gold has marched to new highs as investors seek a safe haven and, perhaps most alarming, it is now more expensive to buy insurance against national default than it is to insure against corporate failure.

“The sovereign debt crisis spun out of control in the past week, and we see no easy way to resolve it,” said Madeline Schnapp, director of macroeconomic research at TrimTabs Investment Research.

Some investors and analysts are increasingly concerned that governments may be no more capable of repaying their debts than the banks and insurance companies they saved. And, they warn, if a major country comes close to default, it could trigger a financial meltdown that would eclipse the panic that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

“The problem of the western world is that we have too much debt,” said Daniel Arbess, who manages the Xerion investment strategy at Perella Weinberg Partners. “Rather than reducing our debt, we’ve been moving it from one balance sheet to another.”

“All we’re doing is shifting chairs on the deck of the Titanic,” he added.