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America is Being Governed by Callous Children

The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers. Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment.

The tide will recede. The boats aren’t rising, they’re bobbing, and will settle. No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we’re entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008. Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either.

Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts. The experts missed the crash. They’ll miss the meaning of this moment, too.

The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes.

The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened.

Crude Awakening

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Most of us can’t stockpile barrels of crude oil in the backyard, nor would we want to. Yet with oil prices soaring, many investors are eager to fill their portfolios with this precious fuel.

Accordingly, a specialized group of exchange-traded funds taps into oil rallies. But investors should be aware that while these funds have been posting solid gains, they are complex, risky instruments which don’t fully capture oil-price moves.

At best, these oil-linked ETFs, which trade on an exchange like stocks, are an indirect pipeline to oil. That’s because unlike some gold and precious metals funds, oil ETFs don’t hold the physical commodity. Instead, they trade oil futures contracts, and that can impact investment returns in ways unsophisticated buyers never expected.

“There is no way to directly invest in oil,” said Bradley Kay, an ETF analyst at Morningstar. “Indirect investments such as oil company stocks, futures, and oil ETFs tend to have a lot of complicated moving parts.”

Wall Street on the Lam

Slashing executive salaries, bonuses and perks at the seven bailed-out companies that gorged most gluttonously at the public trough is emotionally satisfying, but it shouldn’t be. It’s like arresting jaywalkers while ignoring the bank robbery that’s happening in broad daylight down the block.

Don’t get me wrong. The Obama administration’s “pay czar,” Kenneth Feinberg, is right to put a lid on compensation at the Not-So-Magnificent Seven: Citigroup, Bank of America, General Motors, Chrysler, GMAC, Chrysler Financial and the unforgettable AIG.

Twenty-five of the biggest earners at each of those firms will have their overall compensation cut roughly in half, and most of that will come as restricted company stock, not cash. This means that what they ultimately reap, when they are eventually allowed to sell the stock, will depend on how well the company performs — which will depend on how well the executives do their jobs.

Tying pay to performance: What a concept.

Feinberg even muscled outgoing Bank of America chief executive Kenneth Lewis into accepting no pay or bonus for this year. But Lewis will still have an estimated $70 million retirement package to keep him warm at night, so hold your tears.

It’s nice to know that there must be some pooh-bah at B of A, Citigroup or AIG who will have to live without the new $90,000 Porsche Panamera he was planning to buy. But Feinberg’s writ of imperial decree doesn’t extend beyond those seven companies, and the rest of Wall Street gives no indication of remotely understanding what the big deal is about compensation.

Goldman Sachs, for example, has a bonus pool this year of at least $16 billion and perhaps as much as $23 billion.

But all this is just a sideshow. The main event is the limited, far-too-modest attempt by the Obama administration and Congress to curb the irresponsible Wall Street practices that led to the financial meltdown — and, if unaddressed, will lead inexorably to the next crisis.

Deregulation allowed the financial marketplace to devolve from an institution that served the overall economy — by allocating capital most efficiently to the companies that could put it to best use — into an institution whose primary mission was to serve itself.

The vast over-the-counter trade in instruments known as derivatives, nominally worth a staggering $600 trillion worldwide, is largely an exercise in make-believe. Firms make highly leveraged investments in exotic securities whose true value is opaque. Then they hedge these investments by buying insurance against potential losses, although the insurer doesn’t have a fraction of the money it would need to make good on all its promises.

All this investing and hedging generate huge transaction fees and big profits, which can be skimmed off the top each year.

Everything’s fine, until there’s some disruption in the real economy — a downturn in the housing market, say. If the disruption is severe enough, the web of make-believe deals starts to unravel. At which point the government steps in and bails everybody out.

Capping salaries and bonuses is fine. But we need to pay attention to the guys in ski masks with bulging bags of money slung over their shoulders. They’re about to jump into the getaway car.

The Death of American Capitalism?

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Jack Bogle published “The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism” four years ago. The battle’s over. The sequel should be titled: “Capitalism Died a Lost Soul.” Worse, we’ve lost “America’s Soul.” And worldwide the consequences will be catastrophic.

That’s why a man like Hong Kong’s contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: “The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today.”

No, not just another meltdown, another bear market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street’s “too-greedy-to-fail” banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great “American Economic Empire” for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.

You know something’s very wrong: A year ago “too-greedy-to-fail” banks were insolvent, in a near-death experience. Now, magically they’re back to business as usual, arrogant, pocketing outrageous bonuses while Main Street sacrifices, and unemployment and foreclosures continue rising as tight credit, inflation and skyrocketing Federal debt are killing taxpayers.

Yes, Wall Street has lost its moral compass. They created the mess, now, like vultures, they’re capitalizing on the carcass. They have lost all sense of fiduciary duty, ethical responsibility and public obligation.

Capitalism has been the engine driving America and the global economies for over two centuries. Faber predicts its collapse will trigger global “wars, massive government-debt defaults, and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society.” Faber knows that capitalism is not working, capitalism has peaked, and the collapse of capitalism is “inevitable.”

When? He hesitates: “But what I don’t know is whether this final collapse, which is inevitable, will occur tomorrow, or in five or 10 years, and whether it will occur with the Dow at 100,000 and gold at $50,000 per ounce or even confiscated, or with the Dow at 3,000 and gold at $1,000.” But the end is inevitable, a historical imperative.

While the timing may be uncertain, the trigger is certain. Societies collapse because they fail to plan ahead, cannot act fast enough when a catastrophic crisis hits. Think “Black Swan” and read evolutionary biologist Jared Diamond’s “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.”

A crisis hits. We act surprised. Shouldn’t. But it’s too late: “Civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society’s demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power.”

“How are you so sure about this final collapse?” The answer: “Of all the questions I have about the future, this is the easiest one to answer. Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent … overspends … costly wars … wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline.” Success makes us our own worst enemy.

Quoting 18th century Scottish historian Alexander Fraser Tytler: “The average life span of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years” progressing from “bondage to spiritual faith … to great courage … to liberty … to abundance … to selfishness … to complacency … to apathy … to dependence and … back into bondage!”

15 more clues capitalism lost its soul … is a disaster waiting to happen

Much more evidence litters the battlefield:

1. Wall Street wealth now calls the shots in Congress, the White House
2. America’s top 1% own more than 90% of America’s wealth
3. The average worker’s income has declined in three decades while CEO compensation exploded over ten times
4. The Fed is now the ‘fourth branch of government’ operating autonomously, secretly printing money at will
5. Since Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies, all banks are back gambling with taxpayer bailout money plus retail customer deposits
6. Bill Gross warns of a “new normal” with slow growth, low earnings and stock prices
7. While the White House’s chief economist retorts with hype of a recovery unimpeded by the “new normal”
8. Wall Street’s high-frequency junkies make billions trading zombie stocks like AIG, FNMA, FMAC that have no fundamental value beyond a Treasury guarantee
9. 401(k)s have lost 26.7% of their value in the past decade
10. Oil and energy costs will skyrocket
11. Foreign nations and sovereign funds have started dumping dollars, signaling the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency
12. In two years federal debt exploded from $11.2 to $23.7 trillion
13. New financial reforms will do little to prevent the next meltdown
14. The “forever war” between Western and Islamic fundamentalists will widen
15. As will environmental threats and unfunded entitlements

“America Capitalism” is a “Lost Soul” … we’ve lost our moral compass … the coming collapse is the end of an “inevitable” historical cycle stalking all great empires to their graves. Downsize your lifestyle expectations, trust no one, not even media.

Only Fools Try to Beat the Insiders on Wall St.

It’s the myth that will never die.

Jim Cramer has made a career out of promoting it, as have countless other stock-picking gurus since the dawn of time.

What is this myth?

If only you “do your homework,” analyze those financial statements, and listen to such-and-such a stock-picking guru, you, too, can pick stocks well enough to beat the pros.

If there’s one thing that should ring out loud and clear from the recent Wall Street insider-trading bust it is that this is preposterous.

Even without illegal inside information, your competition is intense. The hedge funds, mutual funds, and other professional traders you are competing with have, at a minimum:

* Professional analysts and traders with decades of experience who work 20 hours a day
* Huge industry Rolodexes filled with primary contacts at companies whose stocks they trade
* Research budgets that run into tens or hundreds of millions of dollars a year
* Dozens of Wall Street brokers calling all day with every scrap of info they can dig up
* Instant access to 100% of Wall Street research and analysts from hundreds of firms
* Proprietary research services that can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars a year
* High frequency trading computers that act on any market info in milliseconds

To win the stock-picking game, you have to consistently beat folks who have all of these advantages and more.

And then there’s the sort of information that the busted hedge fund, Galleon, is alleged to have traded on. Yes, some of the information is clearly illegal inside information. The rest of it, however, is what is known on Wall Street as an “edge.”

There’s a saying in poker: If you don’t know who the patsy is at the table, it’s you.

Next time you feel like bellying up to the Wall Street poker table, therefore, ask yourself again who the sucker is. Chances are, it’s not Galleon.

Dead Peasant Insurance?

See for yourself how Corporate America feels about the working class.

Health Insurance Scam

WellPoint health insurance company, which has encouraged its employees to lobby against health care reform, is now cutting their benefits.

The insurance giant plans to raise deductibles and premiums for some of its employee health benefits. “Your cost per paycheck will probably increase,” said a memo to Wellpoint employees that was obtained by Bloomberg News.

The company blamed the recession for the cuts. “Like many employers in today’s economic environment, we are looking at all aspects of our business,” including benefits, “and making adjustments to ensure we can continue to operate competitively in the future,” wrote Chief Human Resources Officer Randy Brown.

WellPoint’s CEO, Angela Braly, made nearly $10 million in 2008.

A House investigation found that WellPoint also rewarded employees for finding ways to drop policyholders who developed expensive conditions — a practice known as rescission.