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Posts Tagged ‘recession’

QE2 Was a Bust

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — It‘s cost $600 billion of your money. And it was supposed to rescue the economy. But has Ben Bernanke’s huge financial stimulus package, known as “Quantitative Easing 2,” actually worked as planned?

QE2 is being wound down in the next few weeks. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said it has left the economy “moving in the right direction.”

Yes, it’s sparked a massive boom on the stock market. Ordinary investors have started piling back into shares again. And last week we saw the latest example of the return of animal spirits on Wall Street, as stock in new dot-com LinkedIn LNKD -7.44% skyrocketed on its debut.

The truth? QE2 has created a massive new bubble in dollar-based financial assets, from stocks to gold. Meanwhile, it has had zero visible effect on the real economy.

Take jobs. According to the U.S. Labor Department, since last August the number of full-time workers has gone up by just 700,000, from 111.8 million to 112.5 million.

At a cost of $600 billion, that’s $850,000 a job.

The picture’s even more meager. Over the same period, the number of part-time workers has gone down by 600,000. In other words, we’ve basically shifted 600,000 or 700,000 workers from part-time jobs to full-time jobs.

Housing is double-dipping. Big time. According to the National Association of Realtors, the average price of an “existing” (i.e. used) home was $177,300 in August, just before QE2.

Today? It’s $163,700 — or 8% less.

Economic growth has slowed. It was 2.6% last summer. It’s a miserable 1.8% now.

Meanwhile inflation has risen, from 1.2% before QE2 to 3.1% now.

Meanwhile QE2 has created an entirely artificial bubble in all dollar-based assets.

Look at the stock market. Since Aug. 27, when Bernanke unveiled his plan for QE2 in Jackson Hole, Wyo., the S&P 500 has risen by 26%.

So far, so good, right? But it’s an illusion. What’s really happened is a decline in the value of the dollars that the shares are measured in.

Measured in hard currencies, the stock market boom has been much less impressive. In Swiss francs, the S&P has risen by just 8.4% since Aug. 27. In currencies like the Swedish krone and Australian dollars it’s even less. Measured in gold, the S&P 500 is up just 4.5%.

Meanwhile the illusion of a boom is causing all sorts of investors to take crazy risks. Witness LinkedIn’s IPO. Economists from the so-called “Austrian” school say this is a reason to go back to a gold standard. It certainly makes you wonder what’s next.

Crude Awakening

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Most of us can’t stockpile barrels of crude oil in the backyard, nor would we want to. Yet with oil prices soaring, many investors are eager to fill their portfolios with this precious fuel.

Accordingly, a specialized group of exchange-traded funds taps into oil rallies. But investors should be aware that while these funds have been posting solid gains, they are complex, risky instruments which don’t fully capture oil-price moves.

At best, these oil-linked ETFs, which trade on an exchange like stocks, are an indirect pipeline to oil. That’s because unlike some gold and precious metals funds, oil ETFs don’t hold the physical commodity. Instead, they trade oil futures contracts, and that can impact investment returns in ways unsophisticated buyers never expected.

“There is no way to directly invest in oil,” said Bradley Kay, an ETF analyst at Morningstar. “Indirect investments such as oil company stocks, futures, and oil ETFs tend to have a lot of complicated moving parts.”

This Time We Can’t Leave the Middle Class Behind

Yes, we want to see a GDP recovery take hold as soon as possible, and once we start seeing robust, consistent job growth we’ll know we’re solidly on track.

But even then, we won’t be done: not until the prosperity we’re generating reaches everyone who’s contributing to it, not until all the bakers get their fair slice of the pie — not just the owners of the bakery or the investors in the bakery, but the men and women who are actually doing the work.

Blue Collar U.S. Males Are Taking the Biggest Hit During This Recession

One statistic that stands out in America’s recession-stung economy is the unemployment rate for adult men: in April for the second month in a row it surged ahead of the national average to 9.4 percent versus 8.9 percent for all workers. The jobless rate for adult women was 7.1 percent.

The reasons are clear: male-heavy sectors such as construction and manufacturing have been hard hit. But the implications may be dire for the broader economy and hamper the recovery as families that once had male breadwinners struggle.

The fact that American males without a college degree are especially vulnerable in this cycle point to more hard times ahead for the U.S. working class, which has endured stagnant and declining wages for the last three decades.

For those without a college degree or better, it has been a bloodbath.

The construction jobs will return, but we are seeing an unusually sharp drop in what is left of manufacturing and much of that drop will not be recovered when the recession ends, and much of what does remain will  be at lower wages with reduced fringe benefits.

U.S. Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected

You’ve heard all the gloom and doom about this recession. Now here’s some good news: the economic recovery could happen much sooner—and be much stronger—than anyone thought possible. 

Though the latest economic data is still giving a mixed picture, a small but growing group of economists is disputing the idea that the recession will drag on for months and that the rebound will be as weak as those following the the 1991 and 2001 downturns.

Even the Federal Reserve is signaling some optimism. After its regular two-day policy meeting ended on Wednesday, the central bank said that weakness in in the economy appeared to be slowing.